In our initial post we take a look at the upcoming weekend games in the Big Ten through the lens of the current standings, our ratings, and projections for the rest of the season. We start by looking at two huge series among the top 4 teams in the conference…
#67 Iowa (6-3) @ #19 Rutgers (11-1)
Conference-leading Rutgers has won 10 straight Big Ten games since an 8-6 loss to Penn State on March 25. The winning streak includes sweeps of Minnesota, Nebraska, and Indiana. The Scarlet Knights have moved into the CBR Top 20 at #19 while maintaining a slim 1-games lead over Illinois. Iowa has won 3 straight conference games following a sweep of their own against Minnesota last weekend. The Hawkeyes currently sit in a fourth place tie with Michigan. The tale of the tape:
| Metric (Rank) | Rutgers | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| CBR Rating | 2.26 (19) | 1.27 (67) |
| SOS | .525 (197) | .439 (97) |
| SOR | 11.1 (18) | 6.4 (62) |
| +/- Exp Wins | 1.1 (74) | 1.5 (44) |
| Conf Record | 11-1 (1) | 6-3 (T-4) |
| Projected Conf Record | 19-5 (1) | 15-9 (4) |
| Win/Tie Regular Season | 76.1% (1) | 4.4% (4) |
| % Make Conf Tourney | 100% (1) | 98.8% (4) |
| Win Conf Tourney | 34.7% (1) | 12.2% (3) |
| RPI | 50 | 75 |
Here is what the numbers say about this weekend’s series:
| Outcome | CBR Probability |
|---|---|
| Rutgers sweeps 3-0 | 28.1% |
| Rutgers wins 2-1 | 44.4% |
| Iowa wins 2-1 | 23.4% |
| Iowa sweeps 3-0 | 4.1% |
#27 Maryland (7-2) @ #105 Illinois (10-2)
Second place in the Big Ten is up for grabs in Champaign as Illinois hosts Maryland. Illinois ranks just 105th in the CBR and is 7-13 in non-conference action but have won 10 of 12 in the Big Ten, including a sweep of rival Northwestern last weekend. Maryland measures up better in terms of the metrics but will have to win this road series to stay on Rutgers’ heels and have the inside track on 2nd place. Let’s look at the tale of the tape:
| Metric (Rank) | Maryland | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| CBR Rating | 2.06 (27) | 0.77 (105) |
| SOS | .508 (169) | .434 (93) |
| SOR | 11.2 (16) | 3.7 (103) |
| +/- Exp Wins | 2.5 (13) | 0.3 (132) |
| Conf Record | 7-2 (3) | 10-2 (2) |
| Projected Conf Record | 17-7 (2) | 16-8 (3) |
| Win/Tie Regular Season | 22.7% (2) | 14.7% (3) |
| % Make Conf Tourney | 99.9% (3) | 99.96% (2) |
| Win Conf Tourney | 27.7% (2) | 7.6% (5) |
| RPI | 26 | 63 |
Here is what the numbers say about this weekend’s series:
| Outcome | CBR Probability |
|---|---|
| Illinois sweeps 3-0 | 4.6% |
| Illinois wins 2-1 | 24.6% |
| Maryland wins 2-1 | 44.3% |
| Maryland sweeps 3-0 | 26.6% |
#140 Nebraska (4-5) @ #111 Indiana (4-5)
A little further down the standings shows a series that factors heavily not into a shot at the regular season title but rather a spot in the conference tourney. Nebraska is tied for 6th with Northwestern at 4-5 while Indiana – despite being only 6 spots behind Illinois in the overall ratings – is 2-7 and tied for 10th. Despite their current spot, Indiana has nearly the same odds of securing a tournament berth as that of 5-7 Penn State. However, that road will get tougher if they struggle at home vs the Cornhuskers this weekend. The tale of the tape:
| Metric (Rank) | Nebraska | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| CBR Rating | 0.19 (140) | 0.63 (111) |
| SOS | .431 (91) | .382 (30) |
| SOR | -1.1 (166) | 0.2 (147) |
| +/- Exp Wins | -1.8 (261) | -2.7 (290) |
| Conf Record | 4-5 (T-6) | 2-7 (T-10) |
| Projected Conf Record | 11-13 (7) | 10-14 (T-8) |
| Win/Tie Regular Season | 0.03% (7) | 0.01% (8) |
| % Make Conf Tourney | 76.4% (6) | 45.4% (9) |
| Win Conf Tourney | 2.1% (8) | 2.4% (8) |
| RPI | 177 | 128 |
Here is what the numbers say about this weekend’s series:
| Outcome | CBR Probability |
|---|---|
| Indiana sweeps 3-0 | 19.9% |
| Indiana wins 2-1 | 42.6% |
| Nebraska wins 2-1 | 30.3% |
| Nebraska sweeps 3-0 | 7.2% |
#152 Ohio State (2-8) @ #80 Michigan (6-3)
Rivals Ohio State and Michigan hit the diamond weekend in Ann Arbor. Ohio State has scuffled to 2-8 record so far in the conference (with 2 canceled games) while Michigan is tied with Iowa for fourth place at 6-3. The tale of the tape:
| Metric (Rank) | Ohio State | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| CBR Rating | 0.01 (152) | 1.12 (80) |
| SOS | .409 (59) | .425 (83) |
| SOR | -1.5 (177) | 5.1 (86) |
| +/- Exp Wins | -1.6 (248) | 0.1 (140) |
| Conf Record | 2-8 (12) | 6-3 (T-4) |
| Projected Conf Record | 7-15 (12) | 14-10 (5) |
| Win/Tie Regular Season | 0% (T-9) | 2.3% (5) |
| % Make Conf Tourney | 5.1% (12) | 96.7% (5) |
| Win Conf Tourney | 0.2% (11) | 9.6% (4) |
| RPI | 147 | 68 |
Here is what the numbers say about this weekend’s series:
| Outcome | CBR Probability |
|---|---|
| Michigan sweeps 3-0 | 29.9% |
| Michigan wins 2-1 | 44.4% |
| Ohio State wins 2-1 | 22.0% |
| Ohio State sweeps 3-0 | 3.6% |
#182 Michigan State (2-7) @ #139 Northwestern (4-5)
The tale of the tape:
| Metric (Rank) | Michigan State | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| CBR Rating | -0.37 (182) | 0.2 (139) |
| SOS | .461 (111) | .465 (120) |
| SOR | -0.7 (161) | 0.6 (138) |
| +/- Exp Wins | 1.0 (83) | -0.6 (198) |
| Conf Record | 2-7 (T-10) | 4-5 (T-6) |
| Projected Conf Record | 9-15 (11) | 12-12 (6) |
| Win/Tie Regular Season | 0% (T-9) | 0.06% (6) |
| % Make Conf Tourney | 21.5% (11) | 76.4% (6) |
| Win Conf Tourney | 0.1% (12) | 2.4 (7) |
| RPI | 178 | 126 |
Here is what the numbers say about this weekend’s series:
| Outcome | CBR Probability |
|---|---|
| Northwestern sweeps 3-0 | 22.1% |
| Northwestern wins 2-1 | 43.4% |
| Michigan State wins 2-1 | 28.3% |
| Michigan State sweeps 3-0 | 6.2% |
#203 Penn State (5-7) @ #206 Minnesota (4-5)
The final series preview for the weekend features the two worst teams in the Big Ten according to CBR. The tale of the tape:
| Metric (Rank) | Penn State | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| CBR Rating | -0.67 (203) | -0.68 (206) |
| SOS | .482 (137) | .417 (71) |
| SOR | -1.4 (175) | -4.2 (219) |
| +/- Exp Wins | 1.4 (57) | -1.4 (240) |
| Conf Record | 5-7 (8) | 1-8 (13) |
| Projected Conf Record | 10-14 (T-8) | 7-17 (13) |
| Win/Tie Regular Season | 0% (T-9) | 0% (T-9) |
| % Make Conf Tourney | 46.3% (8) | 8.3% (12) |
| Win Conf Tourney | 0.4% (10) | 0.03% (13) |
| RPI | 129 | 217 |
Here is what the numbers say about this weekend’s series:
| Outcome | CBR Probability |
|---|---|
| Indiana sweeps 3-0 | 19.9% |
| Indiana wins 2-1 | 42.6% |
| Nebraska wins 2-1 | 30.3% |
| Nebraska sweeps 3-0 | 7.2% |