Big Ten Baseball – April 29 – May 1


Current standings

Team Won Lost Pct
Rutgers 12 3 .800
Maryland 9 3 .750
Illinois 11 4 .733
Iowa 8 4 .667
Michigan 8 4 .667
Northwestern 6 6 .500
Penn State 7 8 .467
Nebraska 5 7 .412
Purdue 4 6 .400
Indiana 4 8 .333
Michigan State 3 9 .250
Ohio State 3 10 .231
Minnesota 2 10 .167

#19 Rutgers (12-3) @ #143 Ohio State(3-10)

Despite losing 2 of 3 to Iowa last weekend at home, Rutgers held steady at #19 in the CBR rankings (#30 SOR) and in 1st place in the conference. Ohio State lost 2 of 3 at rival Michigan and enters the game mired in 12th place. The tale of the tape:

Metric (Rank) Ohio State Rutgers
CBR Rating 0.10 (143) 2.35 (19)
SOS .390 (48) .517 (182)
SOR -1.0 (171) 11.3 (30)
+/- Exp Wins -1.5 (246) 0.2 (141)
Win/Tie Regular Season 0% (T-8) 62.7% (1)
% Make Conf Tourney 3.2% (12) 100% (1)
Win Conf Tourney 0.07% (12) 31.9% (1)
RPI 137 48

Win probabilities for this weekend’s series:

Outcome CBR Probability
Ohio State sweeps 3-0 1.5%
Ohio State wins 2-1 13.6%
Rutgers wins 2-1 41.9%
Rutgers sweeps 3-0 43.0%

#122 Northwestern (6-6) @ #23 Maryland (9-3)

Northwestern enters this weekend in 6th place at 6-6 following a 2-1 series win at home vs Michigan State. Maryland won 2 out of 3 at Illinois last weekend (sweeping a Saturday doubleheader) to move past the Illini into second place. The tale of the tape:

Metric (Rank) Northwestern Maryland
CBR Rating 0.52 (122) 2.27 (23)
SOS .472 (129) .508 (165)
SOR 1.5 (130) 12.2 (21)
+/- Exp Wins -0.8 (212) 1.9 (29)
Win/Tie Regular Season 0.1% (6) 34.7% (2)
% Make Conf Tourney 85.8% (6) 99.97% (T-2)
Win Conf Tourney 2.8% (6) 29.4% (2)
RPI 134 23

Win probabilities for this weekend’s series:

Outcome CBR Probability
Maryland sweeps 3-0 41.1%
Maryland wins 2-1 42.5%
Northwestern wins 2-1 14.7%
Northwestern sweeps 3-0 1.7%

#99 Illinois (11-4) @ #104 Indiana (4-8)

This is an interesting series as Illinois and Indiana are separated by less than a tenth of a run and 5 places in CBR rating but by 5.5 games and 7 places in the Big Ten standings. With Indiana playing at home, they are a very slight favorite in the series despite Illinois’ lofty 3rd place standing. The tale of the tape:

Metric (Rank) Illinois Indiana
CBR Rating 0.94 (99) 0.86 (104)
SOS .417 (81) .383 (42)
SOR 4.6 (100) 2.3 (123)
+/- Exp Wins 0.2 (136) -2.0 (279)
Win/Tie Regular Season 18.0% (3) 0% (T-8)
% Make Conf Tourney 99.97% (T-2) 49.6% (9)
Win Conf Tourney 6.6% (5) 2.7% (7)
RPI 67 115

Win probabilities for this weekend’s series:

Outcome CBR Probability
Indiana sweeps 3-0 13.8%
Indiana wins 2-1 38.7%
Illinois wins 2-1 36.3%
Illinois sweeps 3-0 11.3%

#60 Iowa (8-4) @ #124 Nebraska (5-7)

Following a successful 2-1 series victory at league leading Rutgers last weekend, Iowa heads west along Interstate 80 to visit border rival Nebraska. While Iowa has its sights on a bid to the NCAA tournament, the Cornhuskers first seek to nail down a spot in the Big Ten tourney. Nebraska lost 2 of 3 to Indiana last weekend and currently sits in 8th place, leading 9th place Purdue by .012 percentage points. The tale of the tape:

Metric (Rank) Iowa Nebraska
CBR Rating 1.56 (60) 0.51 (124)
SOS .428 (96) .415 (76)
SOR 8.0 (55) 0.4 (143)
+/- Exp Wins 1.5 (46) -1.9 (275)
Win/Tie Regular Season 14.0% (4) 0.04% (7)
% Make Conf Tourney 99.8% (4) 71.4% (7)
Win Conf Tourney 14.5% (3) 2.3% (8)
RPI 60 162

Win probabilities for this weekend’s series:

Outcome CBR Probability
Nebraska sweeps 3-0 5.8%
Nebraska wins 2-1 27.6%
Iowa wins 2-1 43.6%
Iowa sweeps 3-0 23.0%

#78 Michigan (8-4) @ #127 Purdue (4-6)

Michigan won 2 of 3 vs Ohio State last weekend to remain in a 4th place tie with Iowa. Purdue dropped all 3 games of a home non-conference series vs #73 Belmont (#66 SOR) and comes in 4-6 and trailing Nebraska by .012 percentage points for the final tournament spot. The tale of the tape:

Metric (Rank) Michigan Purdue
CBR Rating 1.27 (78) 0.43 (127)
SOS .421 (85) .551 (220)
SOR 6.0 (81) 3.2 (113)
+/- Exp Wins 0.1 (148) 1.6 (41)
Win/Tie Regular Season 2.7% (5) 0% (T-8)
% Make Conf Tourney 97.6% (5) 21.1% (10)
Win Conf Tourney 8.6% (4) 0.6% (9)
RPI 76 154

Win probabilities for this weekend’s series:

Outcome CBR Probability
Purdue sweeps 3-0 7.1%
Purdue wins 2-1 30.1%
Michigan wins 2-1 42.6%
Michigan sweeps 3-0 20.1%

#211 Minnesota (2-10) @ #156 Michigan State (3-9)

Two of the bottom 3 teams in the conference will battle in East Lansing. Minnesota lost 2 of 3 last weekend to Penn State while Michigan State suffered the same fate at the hands of Northwestern. The tale of the tape:

Metric (Rank) Minnesota Michigan State
CBR Rating -0.82 (211) -0.08 (156)
SOS .444 (106) .450 (109)
SOR -5.3 (223) 0.4 (142)
+/- Exp Wins -1.4 (243) 1.0 (80)
Win/Tie Regular Season 0% (T-8) 0% (T-8)
% Make Conf Tourney 1.3% (13) 16.8% (11)
Win Conf Tourney 0.01% (13) 0.2% (11)
RPI 230 161

Win probabilities for this weekend’s series:

Outcome CBR Probability
Michigan State sweeps 3-0 24.2%
Michigan State wins 2-1 43.9%
Minnesota wins 2-1 26.5%
Minnesota sweeps 3-0 5.3%